Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.77 – 20.66

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.2 ±11.2

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 16.64Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 101.5Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX -3.37Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.8 ±15.6

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX -1.37Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 14.26Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 7.77Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5805, 3128, 3328

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 3128, 3328

Auto

11.7 13%

Teleop

43.1 48%

Endgame

34.1 38%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3020, 4019, 4079

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3020, 4019, 4079

Auto

6.3 0%

Teleop

-20.0 100%

Endgame

13.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.8pts

Blue projected score20.7pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.1
Score range: 6–130
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 84 vs event baseline 86.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.2Season APEX146.8

11.7Auto6.3

43.1Teleop-20

34.1Endgame13.2

107Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	0
teleop	13	18
endgame	15	8
foul	5	0
total	58	26

Result

Final score

58 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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