Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.46 – 18.69

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460 ±11.2

6515Unimatics

Season APEX 41.8Event APEX 13.73Rank 14Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 36.08Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 12.65Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.8 ±13.3

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -22.84Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX -6.43Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 47.96Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6515, 3255, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6515, 3255, 1148

Auto

7.1 12%

Teleop

40.5 67%

Endgame

12.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4276, 8060, 399

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4276, 8060, 399

Auto

16.3 69%

Teleop

15.8 67%

Endgame

-8.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score18.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 4–77
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 85.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460Season APEX149.8

7.1Auto16.3

40.5Teleop15.8

12.9Endgame-8.5

85Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	5
teleop	141	13
endgame	43	7
foul	0	0
total	200	25

Result

Final score

200 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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