Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.84 – 133.26

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.9 ±13.3

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 45.48Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 5.92Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 7.44Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 405.9 ±11.2

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 59.03Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 82.48Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -8.25Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 702, 10166, 3863

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 702, 10166, 3863

Auto

8.3 15%

Teleop

32.0 56%

Endgame

16.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5136, 2637, 6764

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5136, 2637, 6764

Auto

29.3 24%

Teleop

68.4 56%

Endgame

23.9 20%

Strengths

· 2637 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score133.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.4
Score range: 44–148
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 83.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.9Season APEX405.9

8.3Auto29.3

32Teleop68.4

16.6Endgame23.9

127Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	26
teleop	23	127
endgame	13	40
foul	0	0
total	41	193

Result

Final score

41 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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