Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

37.03 – 2.23

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±12.2

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 6.46Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 46.95Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX -16.38Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 132.7 ±16.5

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX -4.32Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4019Mechanical Paradise

Provisional

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 8.65Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX -2.1Rank 42Record 1-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2984, 399, 3328

/ 100 compat

Projected

37 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2984, 399, 3328

Auto

6.3 27%

Teleop

9.2 39%

Endgame

8.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6764, 4019, 3863

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6764, 4019, 3863

Auto

6.5 0%

Teleop

-21.0 84%

Endgame

-10.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37pts

Blue projected score2.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.8
Score range: -14–53
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 87.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.5Season APEX132.7

6.3Auto6.5

9.2Teleop-21

8Endgame-10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	3
teleop	32	6
endgame	32	0
foul	0	15
total	66	24

Result

Final score

66 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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