Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.06 – 94.28

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

67 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.1 ±12.4

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 24.07Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 107.24Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6764Flash Drives

Season APEX 29Event APEX 6.75Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.6 ±10.4

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 23.75Rank 15Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 62.83Rank 12Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 7.7Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4160, 3255, 6764

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 3255, 6764

Auto

20.7 15%

Teleop

86.4 61%

Endgame

33.8 24%

Strengths

· 3255 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3647, 9452, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3647, 9452, 1138

Auto

12.6 15%

Teleop

62.7 75%

Endgame

8.5 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.8
Score range: 74–158
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.1Season APEX410.6

20.7Auto12.6

86.4Teleop62.7

33.8Endgame8.5

11Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	5
teleop	42	3
endgame	23	0
foul	0	5
total	67	13

Result

Final score

67 – 13

Prediction correct · off by 76.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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