Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.11 – 58.07

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

7 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 148.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 96.3 ±13.9

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 24.27Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 8.78Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7327Metal Jackets

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 7.06Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.2 ±9.8

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 26.08Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 13.96Rank 7Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 18.03Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10166, 4276, 7327

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 4276, 7327

Auto

4.6 12%

Teleop

18.6 47%

Endgame

16.2 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 2584, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2485, 2584, 3128

Auto

6.8 12%

Teleop

20.8 36%

Endgame

29.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.1pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 25–73
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

96.3Season APEX555.2

4.6Auto6.8

18.6Teleop20.8

16.2Endgame29.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	62
teleop	0	207
endgame	0	28
foul	0	25
total	7	322

Result

Final score

7 – 322

Prediction correct · off by 148.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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