Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.21 – 115.9

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±12.4

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 4.94Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 13.5Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 25.77Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±10.4

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 51.32Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 31.1Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 33.48Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3473, 4711, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3473, 4711, 2429

Auto

-2.4 0%

Teleop

39.1 100%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 5136, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5817, 5136, 7157

Auto

12.1 14%

Teleop

48.8 56%

Endgame

26.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score115.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 30–130
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 78.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

355.1Season APEX419.9

-2.4Auto12.1

39.1Teleop48.8

-2.2Endgame26.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	19
teleop	29	103
endgame	22	41
foul	20	0
total	75	163

Result

Final score

75 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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