Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.51 – 88.65

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 305.6 ±11.7

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 43.6Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 3.84Rank 22Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 26.07Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 480.7 ±11.2

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 28.07Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 34.51Rank 24Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4276Surf City Vikings

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 26.07Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 8060, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2637, 8060, 6657

Auto

10.3 13%

Teleop

39.4 51%

Endgame

27.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3128, 2984, 4276

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3128, 2984, 4276

Auto

8.1 9%

Teleop

33.8 39%

Endgame

45.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.5pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.1
Score range: 60–103
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 77.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

305.6Season APEX480.7

10.3Auto8.1

39.4Teleop33.8

27.9Endgame45.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	10
teleop	44	9
endgame	22	19
foul	0	0
total	106	38

Result

Final score

106 – 38

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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