Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.46 – 56.99

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

10 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.6 ±13.9

4711The Flying Aces

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 23.27Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3020SMbld

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 35.65Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3759SMARTBOTS

Season APEX 40.7Event APEX 11.54Rank 30Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±12.4

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 27.43Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 25.43Rank 11Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1159Ramona Rampage

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 4.13Rank 38Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4711, 3020, 3759

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4711, 3020, 3759

Auto

6.6 9%

Teleop

44.7 63%

Endgame

19.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10166, 2429, 1159

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 2429, 1159

Auto

4.3 8%

Teleop

20.4 36%

Endgame

32.4 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score57pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.5
Score range: 42–85
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 62 vs event baseline 81.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.6Season APEX318.2

6.6Auto4.3

44.7Teleop20.4

19.3Endgame32.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	5
teleop	5	39
endgame	5	8
foul	0	0
total	10	52

Result

Final score

10 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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