Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.83 – 25

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±10.5

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 10.97Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 40.29Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 14.57Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±11.2

3473Team Sprocket

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 12.17Rank 37Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX -1.74Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 14.57Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 399, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3255, 399, 968

Auto

9.5 15%

Teleop

32.5 50%

Endgame

22.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3473, 5805, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

25 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3473, 5805, 9084

Auto

2.1 12%

Teleop

7.3 42%

Endgame

7.9 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.8pts

Blue projected score25pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.8
Score range: 10–81
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 83.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.3Season APEX411.3

9.5Auto2.1

32.5Teleop7.3

22.5Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	3
teleop	71	4
endgame	0	3
foul	10	15
total	107	25

Result

Final score

107 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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