Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.46 – 51.72

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.6 ±11.2

4160The RoBucs

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 22.06Rank 35Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 44.86Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX -17.46Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.4 ±10.4

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 17.43Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 10.36Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 23.93Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4160, 8, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4160, 8, 1138

Auto

2.8 6%

Teleop

29.1 58%

Endgame

18.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2710, 4079, 5136

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2710, 4079, 5136

Auto

0.5 1%

Teleop

25.3 64%

Endgame

14.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.5pts

Blue projected score51.7pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.3
Score range: 35–66
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 79.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.6Season APEX323.4

2.8Auto0.5

29.1Teleop25.3

18.5Endgame14

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	8
teleop	78	49
endgame	35	35
foul	0	5
total	137	97

Result

Final score

137 – 97

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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