Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.55 – 163.98

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.2 ±9.3

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 14.33Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 102.27Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 139.95Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.7 ±10.4

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 20.9Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 82.45Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 60.63Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1138, 2637, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1138, 2637, 3128

Auto

52.8 21%

Teleop

142.2 57%

Endgame

52.7 21%

Strengths

· 3128 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 5817, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

164 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5805, 5817, 1148

Auto

25.1 16%

Teleop

89.8 57%

Endgame

42.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256.5pts

Blue projected score164pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.6
Score range: 145–276
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.2Season APEX387.7

52.8Auto25.1

142.2Teleop89.8

52.7Endgame42.4

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	34
teleop	39	80
endgame	46	50
foul	0	5
total	170	169

Result

Final score

170 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Match videos

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