CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.31 – 146.04

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.9 ±12.2

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 30.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 29.04Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 23.33Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 6.24Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 81.65Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 58.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7528, 4135, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7528, 4135, 10252

Auto

14.3 20%

Teleop

31.6 43%

Endgame

27.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 2854, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

146 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 2854, 649

Auto

33.6 25%

Teleop

73.5 54%

Endgame

28.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score146pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.7
Score range: 49–180
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.9Season APEX318.7

14.3Auto33.6

31.6Teleop73.5

27.1Endgame28.8

14Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	33
teleop	44	45
endgame	37	20
foul	0	15
total	101	113

Result

Final score

101 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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