CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.57 – 130.31

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.9

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 170.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 6.84Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 103.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.8 ±12.1

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 33.55Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 44.39Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 52.37Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 7413, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 7413, 6238

Auto

42.3 16%

Teleop

153.9 57%

Endgame

75.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 6506, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 6506, 2643

Auto

18.7 16%

Teleop

49.6 42%

Endgame

49.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score280.6pts

Blue projected score130.3pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.3
Score range: 95–316
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 191.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX198.8

42.3Auto18.7

153.9Teleop49.6

75.5Endgame49.9

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	12
teleop	128	68
endgame	34	54
foul	10	10
total	211	144

Result

Final score

211 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Match videos

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