CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.29 – 59.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

300 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.3 ±9.9

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 191.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 9.58Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 156.58Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.1 ±11.1

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 16.92Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 30.74Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 12.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 4255, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 4255, 3045

Auto

84.7 24%

Teleop

193.2 55%

Endgame

75.9 21%

Strengths

· 2813 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 2035, 6059

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 2035, 6059

Auto

12.6 27%

Teleop

26.8 57%

Endgame

7.6 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score357.3pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 297.3
Score range: 25–392
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 348 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.3Season APEX297.1

84.7Auto12.6

193.2Teleop26.8

75.9Endgame7.6

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	17
teleop	168	19
endgame	67	7
foul	35	5
total	300	48

Result

Final score

300 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Match videos

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