CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.22 – 146.45

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.3 ±11.6

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 82.52Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 95.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 29.68Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 5.66Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 82.9Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 57.89Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 5104, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 5104, 10059

Auto

34.5 17%

Teleop

112.7 54%

Endgame

61.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 2854, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 2854, 649

Auto

31.2 23%

Teleop

72.2 54%

Endgame

29.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.2pts

Blue projected score146.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.8
Score range: 111–242
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 192.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.3Season APEX318.7

34.5Auto31.2

112.7Teleop72.2

61Endgame29.9

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	42
teleop	128	80
endgame	37	22
foul	20	0
total	231	144

Result

Final score

231 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Match videos

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