CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

279.65 – 204.18

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.9

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 169.98Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 103.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 6.58Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.3 ±11.6

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 28.25Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 81.32Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 94.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 6238, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 6238, 7413

Auto

49.4 18%

Teleop

155.7 57%

Endgame

67.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10059, 668, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 668, 5104

Auto

36.1 18%

Teleop

104.3 52%

Endgame

59.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score279.7pts

Blue projected score204.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.5
Score range: 168–316
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 197.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX303.3

49.4Auto36.1

155.7Teleop104.3

67.3Endgame59.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	38
teleop	133	114
endgame	49	83
foul	10	0
total	254	235

Result

Final score

254 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Match videos

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