CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.38 – 140.61

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 72 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.3 ±9.9

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 168.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 101.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 4.91Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 3.06Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 81.24Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 56.31Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1868, 6238, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 6238, 7413

Auto

46.8 18%

Teleop

151.7 57%

Endgame

67.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 2854, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 2854, 649

Auto

32.8 25%

Teleop

69.5 54%

Endgame

27.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score274.4pts

Blue projected score140.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.8
Score range: 106–309
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 192.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.3Season APEX318.7

46.8Auto32.8

151.7Teleop69.5

67.3Endgame27.2

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	51
teleop	186	171
endgame	70	13
foul	0	5
total	319	240

Result

Final score

319 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 72 pts

Match videos

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