CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.02 – 46.19

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 134.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.5 ±11.1

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 6.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 9.97Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 68.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.1 ±12.7

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -0.88Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 26.82Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 20.25Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4171, 6506, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 6506, 2813

Auto

23.5 32%

Teleop

21.5 29%

Endgame

28.0 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11247, 2035, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11247, 2035, 668

Auto

13.4 30%

Teleop

21.7 48%

Endgame

9.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.8
Score range: 11–120
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.5Season APEX206.1

23.5Auto13.4

21.5Teleop21.7

28Endgame9.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	34
teleop	112	90
endgame	99	22
foul	0	0
total	255	146

Result

Final score

255 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 134.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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