CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.41 – 229.55

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 173.6 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 840.4 ±8.7

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 95.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 29.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 60.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.2 ±11.1

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 29.71Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 126.7Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 73.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 6665, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 6665, 1868

Auto

44.7 26%

Teleop

78.5 45%

Endgame

51.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2854, 5760, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 5760, 604

Auto

26.7 12%

Teleop

131.9 59%

Endgame

63.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score229.6pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.1
Score range: 154–262
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 568 vs event baseline 179.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

840.4Season APEX509.2

44.7Auto26.7

78.5Teleop131.9

51.5Endgame63.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	42
teleop	241	90
endgame	93	0
foul	10	0
total	436	132

Result

Final score

436 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 173.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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