CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.48 – 69.95

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 1.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±11

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 27.04Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 5.95Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 81.49Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.7 ±12.1

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 53.56Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 5.41Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 10.98Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4135, 10339, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 10339, 2854

Auto

14.5 13%

Teleop

52.5 49%

Endgame

40.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2643, 7413, 5760

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 7413, 5760

Auto

16.6 25%

Teleop

26.9 41%

Endgame

22.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.5pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.5
Score range: 36–148
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 189.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.7Season APEX130.7

14.5Auto16.6

52.5Teleop26.9

40.8Endgame22.5

14Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	10
teleop	80	36
endgame	0	20
foul	0	5
total	117	71

Result

Final score

117 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 1.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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