CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

237.1 – 309.83

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

291 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.8 ±10.5

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 81.12Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 55.63Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 100.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.8 ±14

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 10.5Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 258.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 41Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 649, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 649, 6238

Auto

52.0 24%

Teleop

116.3 53%

Endgame

52.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6410, 604, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6410, 604, 6506

Auto

54.2 18%

Teleop

176.1 58%

Endgame

75.1 25%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score237.1pts

Blue projected score309.8pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.7
Score range: 203–344
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 186.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.8Season APEX465.8

52Auto54.2

116.3Teleop176.1

52.8Endgame75.1

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	59
teleop	164	231
endgame	80	99
foul	10	5
total	291	394

Result

Final score

291 – 394

Prediction correct · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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