CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.24 – 177

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±12.7

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 74.06Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -2.59Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 24.77Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.8 ±10.5

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 7.22Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 160.7Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 9.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2854, 11247, 6884

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2854, 11247, 6884

Auto

19.8 23%

Teleop

41.2 47%

Endgame

26.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 3045, 4255

/ 100 compat

Projected

177 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 3045, 4255

Auto

57.1 33%

Teleop

90.5 53%

Endgame

24.3 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.2pts

Blue projected score177pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.8
Score range: 62–211
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 187.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.3Season APEX505.8

19.8Auto57.1

41.2Teleop90.5

26.5Endgame24.3

92Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	70
teleop	101	98
endgame	76	16
foul	0	0
total	208	184

Result

Final score

208 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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