CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.92 – 445.09

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

287 – 623

Prediction correct · off by 128 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±11.7

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 167.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -10.97Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 52.21Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 777.2 ±9.9

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 25.71Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 242.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 177.18Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 7777, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 7777, 2643

Auto

31.1 16%

Teleop

109.5 55%

Endgame

57.8 29%

Strengths

· 2813 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6506, 604, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

445.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6506, 604, 581

Auto

67.8 15%

Teleop

267.8 61%

Endgame

102.2 23%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.9pts

Blue projected score445.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -236.2
Score range: 176–478
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 910 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.3Season APEX777.2

31.1Auto67.8

109.5Teleop267.8

57.8Endgame102.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	119
teleop	148	380
endgame	87	124
foul	15	0
total	287	623

Result

Final score

287 – 623

Prediction correct · off by 128 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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