CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.57 – 69.42

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

63 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±12.1

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 20.45Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 14.99Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 89.13Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.5 ±13.5

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 10.82Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 36.4Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 22.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4171, 7413, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 7413, 668

Auto

37.6 30%

Teleop

51.5 41%

Endgame

37.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6410, 4135, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6410, 4135, 6665

Auto

8.9 14%

Teleop

16.2 26%

Endgame

36.5 59%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.6pts

Blue projected score69.4pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.1
Score range: 36–158
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 184.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166Season APEX314.5

37.6Auto8.9

51.5Teleop16.2

37Endgame36.5

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	20	17
endgame	20	16
foul	0	0
total	63	49

Result

Final score

63 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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