CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.4 – 59.16

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.3 ±9.9

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 24.72Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 95.63Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 155.05Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.7 ±13.3

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 35.13Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 27.76Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -3.73Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10059, 6238, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 6238, 3045

Auto

72.9 28%

Teleop

141.5 54%

Endgame

47.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7528, 10252, 11247

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7528, 10252, 11247

Auto

19.0 34%

Teleop

23.9 43%

Endgame

12.6 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.5 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score275.4pts

Blue projected score59.2pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 216.2
Score range: 26–308
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 184.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.3Season APEX192.7

72.9Auto19

141.5Teleop23.9

47.7Endgame12.6

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	7
teleop	226	22
endgame	54	10
foul	0	15
total	353	54

Result

Final score

353 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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