CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.7 – 293.3

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.3 ±14.4

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX 11.31Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 12.57Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 17.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.4 ±11.1

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 237.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 18.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 37.79Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6410, 10339, 6059

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6410, 10339, 6059

Auto

16.2 55%

Teleop

7.6 26%

Endgame

5.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 4171, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 604, 4171, 2035

Auto

45.7 16%

Teleop

182.2 63%

Endgame

61.2 21%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.7pts

Blue projected score293.3pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -251.6
Score range: 9–326
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 185.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.3Season APEX438.4

16.2Auto45.7

7.6Teleop182.2

5.8Endgame61.2

20Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	51
teleop	3	173
endgame	11	79
foul	0	10
total	29	313

Result

Final score

29 – 313

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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