CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.25 – 142.8

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

525 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 195.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 734.1 ±9.3

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 133.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 146.91Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 12.56Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±11.6

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 52.21Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 36.45Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 54.14Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 2813, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 2813, 4135

Auto

64.7 23%

Teleop

140.7 49%

Endgame

81.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 649, 2643, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 2643, 2854

Auto

25.4 20%

Teleop

54.9 44%

Endgame

45.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score293.3pts

Blue projected score142.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.5
Score range: 110–326
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 182.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

734.1Season APEX267.6

64.7Auto25.4

140.7Teleop54.9

81.4Endgame45

4Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	52
teleop	298	164
endgame	126	76
foul	0	10
total	525	302

Result

Final score

525 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 195.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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