CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.16 – 173.07

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.1 ±11.1

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 25.75Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 7.7Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 180.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.5 ±11.6

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 92.36Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 43.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 37.06Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10059, 5760, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 5760, 1868

Auto

34.1 16%

Teleop

115.1 54%

Endgame

65.6 31%

Strengths

· 1868 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 2035, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5104, 2035, 6506

Auto

15.8 9%

Teleop

101.0 58%

Endgame

57.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.2pts

Blue projected score173.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.1
Score range: 140–247
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.1Season APEX302.5

34.1Auto15.8

115.1Teleop101

65.6Endgame57.4

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	22
teleop	131	83
endgame	63	54
foul	5	0
total	236	159

Result

Final score

236 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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