CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.9 – 169.56

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.1 ±9.9

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 111.34Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 159.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 48.08Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416.4 ±11.1

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 15.95Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 25.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 128.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 668, 2813, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 2813, 6665

Auto

52.9 18%

Teleop

155.8 52%

Endgame

91.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7413, 6884, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 6884, 3045

Auto

64.3 39%

Teleop

75.5 46%

Endgame

24.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score318.9pts

Blue projected score169.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149.3
Score range: 136–353
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 186.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.1Season APEX416.4

52.9Auto64.3

155.8Teleop75.5

91.5Endgame24.4

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	56
teleop	98	69
endgame	38	39
foul	0	10
total	186	174

Result

Final score

186 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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