CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.29 – 76.34

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.6 ±12.1

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 7.23Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 35.74Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 33.32Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.9 ±12.1

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 37.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 27.37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 11.35Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4255, 2643, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4255, 2643, 6506

Auto

8.6 13%

Teleop

23.5 35%

Endgame

34.5 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10252, 4171, 5760

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 4171, 5760

Auto

22.6 27%

Teleop

44.6 53%

Endgame

17.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.3pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 42–110
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 113 vs event baseline 190.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.6Season APEX170.9

8.6Auto22.6

23.5Teleop44.6

34.5Endgame17.6

9Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	45	11
endgame	23	7
foul	0	0
total	83	30

Result

Final score

83 – 30

Prediction missed · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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