CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.47 – 141.65

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.1 ±10.5

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 263.8Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 27.14Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 28.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.4 ±11.1

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 15.41Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 88.04Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 38.2Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 4135, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 604, 4135, 10059

Auto

54.1 17%

Teleop

180.1 57%

Endgame

79.3 25%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6665, 2854, 6506

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6665, 2854, 6506

Auto

23.5 18%

Teleop

72.0 54%

Endgame

37.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score319.5pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.8
Score range: 104–357
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 208.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.1Season APEX382.4

54.1Auto23.5

180.1Teleop72

79.3Endgame37.5

7Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	7
teleop	155	22
endgame	71	45
foul	0	30
total	256	104

Result

Final score

256 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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