CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.12 – 344.11

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

214 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.2 ±10.5

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 40.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 179.76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 12.34Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664 ±9.9

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 189.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 45.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 109.51Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2035, 581, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2035, 581, 4135

Auto

29.4 13%

Teleop

149.0 65%

Endgame

52.1 23%

Strengths

· 581 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1868, 6059, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1868, 6059, 6238

Auto

38.3 12%

Teleop

199.6 60%

Endgame

93.1 28%

Strengths

· 1868 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score232.1pts

Blue projected score344.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112
Score range: 198–378
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.2Season APEX664

29.4Auto38.3

149Teleop199.6

52.1Endgame93.1

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	60
teleop	100	102
endgame	90	37
foul	10	20
total	214	219

Result

Final score

214 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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