CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

355.27 – 158.54

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±11.2

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 238.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 30.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 85.7Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.5 ±12.1

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 102.41Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 40.4Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 15.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 7528, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 604, 7528, 5104

Auto

58.6 17%

Teleop

197.0 57%

Endgame

90.3 26%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 668, 2854, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 668, 2854, 10059

Auto

28.7 19%

Teleop

75.7 49%

Endgame

49.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score355.3pts

Blue projected score158.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.7
Score range: 126–388
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.5Season APEX257.5

58.6Auto28.7

197Teleop75.7

90.3Endgame49.1

33Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	58
teleop	277	131
endgame	66	54
foul	0	10
total	422	253

Result

Final score

422 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 80.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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