CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.85 – 154.36

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 166.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±11.1

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 12.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 103.76Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 22.5Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±11.2

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 29.72Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 120.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 4.28Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2035, 3045, 6059

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2035, 3045, 6059

Auto

56.2 39%

Teleop

89.3 62%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4135, 6238, 7777

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 6238, 7777

Auto

16.0 11%

Teleop

89.4 64%

Endgame

34.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.9pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.5
Score range: 105–188
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 188.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.5Season APEX423

56.2Auto16

89.3Teleop89.4

-2.6Endgame34.4

45Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	20
teleop	193	5
endgame	87	11
foul	20	5
total	358	41

Result

Final score

358 – 41

Prediction missed · off by 166.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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