CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.96 – 91.75

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.1 ±10.5

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 35.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 6.01Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 217.6Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.1 ±12.1

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 36.64Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 13.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 41.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 7413, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

259 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 7413, 604

Auto

49.3 20%

Teleop

137.2 57%

Endgame

54.5 23%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4171, 10059, 2643

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4171, 10059, 2643

Auto

22.2 26%

Teleop

31.4 37%

Endgame

31.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259pts

Blue projected score91.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.2
Score range: 59–292
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 182.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.1Season APEX155.1

49.3Auto22.2

137.2Teleop31.4

54.5Endgame31.9

31Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	17
teleop	200	28
endgame	88	29
foul	0	0
total	367	74

Result

Final score

367 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 62.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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