CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.55 – 250.14

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 119.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.7 ±12.7

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 29.41Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 32.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 20.07Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.4 ±11.7

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 151.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 89.6Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 9.23Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 6059, 11247

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 6059, 11247

Auto

22.4 25%

Teleop

56.9 62%

Endgame

12.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 581, 668, 7528

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 581, 668, 7528

Auto

44.8 19%

Teleop

127.1 54%

Endgame

62.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.6pts

Blue projected score250.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.6
Score range: 50–282
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.7Season APEX533.4

22.4Auto44.8

56.9Teleop127.1

12Endgame62.5

38Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	100
teleop	13	248
endgame	14	110
foul	0	0
total	51	458

Result

Final score

51 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 119.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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