CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.58 – 241.83

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.2 ±10.5

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 40.7Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 214.55Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 33.33Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423 ±10.5

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 46.14Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 184.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 10.96Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2643, 604, 10339

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 604, 10339

Auto

27.2 10%

Teleop

161.2 60%

Endgame

79.4 30%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4135, 1868, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 1868, 7413

Auto

37.7 15%

Teleop

129.8 53%

Endgame

76.6 31%

Strengths

· 1868 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score288.6pts

Blue projected score241.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 210–321
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 177.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.2Season APEX423

27.2Auto37.7

161.2Teleop129.8

79.4Endgame76.6

16Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	26
teleop	172	123
endgame	42	73
foul	20	0
total	304	222

Result

Final score

304 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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