CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.48 – 123.61

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.2 ±11.7

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 20.32Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 71.33Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 13.83Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208 ±11.6

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 38.68Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 41.45Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 43.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7777, 6665, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7777, 6665, 2854

Auto

13.7 17%

Teleop

43.9 56%

Endgame

21.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 4171, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 4171, 649

Auto

34.6 30%

Teleop

44.5 38%

Endgame

36.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.5pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.1
Score range: 72–157
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.2Season APEX208

13.7Auto34.6

43.9Teleop44.5

21.1Endgame36.7

69Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	27
teleop	35	22
endgame	10	14
foul	0	10
total	51	73

Result

Final score

51 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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