CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.18 – 104.44

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 79.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 758.1 ±10.7

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 137.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 163.48Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 39.44Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.7 ±11.6

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 49.81Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 44.47Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 10.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 581, 11247

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 581, 11247

Auto

78.8 23%

Teleop

222.3 65%

Endgame

40.5 12%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 6506, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5104, 6506, 10059

Auto

7.9 7%

Teleop

47.7 45%

Endgame

50.6 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score340.2pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235.7
Score range: 71–373
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 182.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

758.1Season APEX299.7

78.8Auto7.9

222.3Teleop47.7

40.5Endgame50.6

60Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	14
teleop	81	67
endgame	46	37
foul	0	0
total	195	118

Result

Final score

195 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 79.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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