CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.6 – 365.12

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 80.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.2 ±11.1

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 24.94Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 34.14Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 67.52Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 611.3 ±9.9

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 162.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 31.1Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 171.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 2643, 6665

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 2643, 6665

Auto

19.9 19%

Teleop

37.2 36%

Endgame

47.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6238, 2035, 2813

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6238, 2035, 2813

Auto

46.5 13%

Teleop

218.1 62%

Endgame

89.4 25%

Strengths

· 2813 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.61 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score365.1pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -238.5
Score range: 95–397
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.2Season APEX611.3

19.9Auto46.5

37.2Teleop218.1

47.6Endgame89.4

14Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	46
teleop	58	85
endgame	42	49
foul	5	25
total	127	205

Result

Final score

127 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 80.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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