CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.06 – 59.62

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

246 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.2 ±10.5

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 148.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 57.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 101.37Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.4 ±11.6

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 36.79Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 33.84Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX -11.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 5104, 668

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 5104, 668

Auto

91.3 30%

Teleop

145.4 47%

Endgame

71.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10339, 4171, 4255

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 4171, 4255

Auto

8.7 16%

Teleop

22.4 40%

Endgame

24.4 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score307.1pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 247.4
Score range: 27–340
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 182.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.2Season APEX204.4

91.3Auto8.7

145.4Teleop22.4

71.3Endgame24.4

39Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	18
teleop	142	4
endgame	55	3
foul	5	5
total	246	30

Result

Final score

246 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 45.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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