CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.34 – 122.79

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 374.4 ±11.1

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 163.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 3.27Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 60.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11.7

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 47.5Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 45.06Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 30.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2813, 10059, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2813, 10059, 10252

Auto

42.1 19%

Teleop

106.6 49%

Endgame

67.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4135, 11247, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4135, 11247, 649

Auto

19.9 18%

Teleop

55.2 50%

Endgame

35.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.3pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.6
Score range: 90–260
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 183.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

374.4Season APEX262.9

42.1Auto19.9

106.6Teleop55.2

67.2Endgame35.8

23Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	27
teleop	150	33
endgame	78	35
foul	5	0
total	266	95

Result

Final score

266 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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