CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.53 – 219.01

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±11

10339BrainShift

Season APEX 104.3Event APEX 39.23Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 17.55Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 47.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.5 ±11.7

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 39.81Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 4.56Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6238Popcorn Penguins

Season APEX 285Event APEX 174.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10339, 5760, 5104

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10339, 5760, 5104

Auto

13.0 12%

Teleop

47.8 46%

Endgame

43.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2643, 7528, 6238

/ 100 compat

Projected

219 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 7528, 6238

Auto

48.0 22%

Teleop

132.0 61%

Endgame

38.0 17%

Strengths

· 6238 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.5pts

Blue projected score219pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.5
Score range: 72–252
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 185.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX424.5

13Auto48

47.8Teleop132

43.3Endgame38

48Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	72	35
endgame	18	62
foul	5	60
total	116	171

Result

Final score

116 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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