CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.8 – 63.73

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.1 ±12.7

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 0.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4255Robodores

Season APEX 45.9Event APEX -17.55Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 44.32Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±12.7

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 13.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 42.24Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 7.52Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10059, 4255, 11247

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 4255, 11247

Auto

2.2 12%

Teleop

8.0 44%

Endgame

7.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6059, 7777, 2854

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6059, 7777, 2854

Auto

6.1 13%

Teleop

48.7 100%

Endgame

-6.7 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.8pts

Blue projected score63.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.9
Score range: -6–97
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 183.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.1Season APEX215.4

2.2Auto6.1

8Teleop48.7

7.8Endgame-6.7

126Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	16
teleop	19	34
endgame	11	13
foul	0	0
total	49	63

Result

Final score

49 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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