CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.98 – 242.45

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 627.9 ±9.3

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 12.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6665C-Otters

Season APEX 176.2Event APEX 65.94Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

581Blazing Bulldogs

Season APEX 347Event APEX 157.89Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 442.1 ±14

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 92.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX -24.45Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 174.47Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 6665, 581

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 6665, 581

Auto

29.1 14%

Teleop

120.0 57%

Endgame

62.7 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10252, 6410, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 6410, 3045

Auto

80.0 33%

Teleop

126.8 53%

Endgame

34.5 14%

Strengths

· 3045 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236pts

Blue projected score242.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.5
Score range: 203–275
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 181.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

627.9Season APEX442.1

29.1Auto80

120Teleop126.8

62.7Endgame34.5

53Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	52
teleop	182	37
endgame	66	31
foul	30	10
total	316	130

Result

Final score

316 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 96.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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