CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.43 – 122.95

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.3 ±15.3

2643Dark Matter

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 55.04Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11247Alisal High School Robotics Team

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 54.51Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX -35.12Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.1 ±12.1

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 98.22Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2854The Prototypes

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX -1.6Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2035The Rockin' Bots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 26.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2643, 11247, 6410

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2643, 11247, 6410

Auto

16.1 25%

Teleop

18.3 28%

Endgame

30.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10252, 2854, 2035

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 2854, 2035

Auto

44.9 38%

Teleop

57.6 49%

Endgame

14.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.4pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 41–156
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.3Season APEX211.1

16.1Auto44.9

18.3Teleop57.6

30.9Endgame14.7

154Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	21
teleop	17	85
endgame	16	24
foul	5	5
total	49	135

Result

Final score

49 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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