CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.47 – 52.06

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.8 ±10.5

6506Steel Boot Robotics

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX 67.33Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 193.16Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 42.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.8 ±12.7

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 38.3Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 8.52Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7528Nuts and Bolts

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 5.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6506, 3045, 649

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6506, 3045, 649

Auto

75.9 26%

Teleop

144.1 50%

Endgame

67.1 23%

Strengths

· 3045 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6884, 6059, 7528

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6884, 6059, 7528

Auto

25.6 59%

Teleop

18.9 44%

Endgame

-1.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score303.5pts

Blue projected score52.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 251.4
Score range: 19–336
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 185.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.8Season APEX205.8

75.9Auto25.6

144.1Teleop18.9

67.1Endgame-1.2

89Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	18
teleop	81	15
endgame	53	6
foul	5	10
total	210	49

Result

Final score

210 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 48.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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