CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.19 – 110.14

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±11.7

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -14.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 43.91Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 63.13Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.5 ±14.8

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 80.71Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

668The Apes of Wrath

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 46.37Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6410Supreme Eagles

Season APEX 35.6Event APEX -16.94Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7777, 10252, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7777, 10252, 604

Auto

41.8 50%

Teleop

38.5 46%

Endgame

3.2 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5760, 668, 6410

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 668, 6410

Auto

31.5 28%

Teleop

74.2 66%

Endgame

7.5 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.2pts

Blue projected score110.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 59–143
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 182.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.9Season APEX201.5

41.8Auto31.5

38.5Teleop74.2

3.2Endgame7.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	30
teleop	226	50
endgame	67	39
foul	0	5
total	326	124

Result

Final score

326 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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