CA District Pinnacles Event presented by Apple

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.12 – 149.04

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 450.9 ±10.5

649MSET Fish

Season APEX 104.7Event APEX 53.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2813Gear Heads

Season APEX 275.8Event APEX 109.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6059System Overload Robotics

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 34.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±11

5104BreakerBots

Season APEX 155.5Event APEX 44.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6884Deep-Space Robotics

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 21.92Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4135Iron Patriots

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 82.67Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 649, 2813, 6059

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 649, 2813, 6059

Auto

53.3 29%

Teleop

83.1 45%

Endgame

49.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5104, 6884, 4135

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5104, 6884, 4135

Auto

6.7 5%

Teleop

65.7 47%

Endgame

67.4 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.1pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.1
Score range: 116–230
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 346 vs event baseline 183.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

450.9Season APEX307.3

53.3Auto6.7

83.1Teleop65.7

49.8Endgame67.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	89	84
endgame	42	69
foul	10	5
total	166	180

Result

Final score

166 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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